A major question is riddling the minds of many experts and analysts, and even political officials. What is behind the scenes of orders placed by U.S. President Donald Trump for a complete U.S. forces pull-out of Syria?
During the past eight years, the Syria crisis and the resulting political face-offs have been one of the subjects significantly impacting the security, political and power struggle dynamics across the Middle East.
The Wall Street Journal just recently cited two informed U.S administration officials saying this country is preparing for a complete withdrawal of its forces out of northeast Syria.
Is America retreating?
During the past few months, the positions taken by U.S. officials made such a pullout of forces unbelievable. There was talk of U.S. forces training 40,000 local forces and providing heavy equipment for their new units.
On the other hand, the White House had repeatedly emphasized on the U.S. forces remaining in Syria as long as Iranian forces are present in this country. As a result, these contradictions in American positions may seem to some extent suspicious, confusing and even dangerous.
What is going on behind the scenes?
A variety of scenarios is quite possible.
Scenario One:
The U.S. withdrawal from Syria is part of a plan blueprinted by National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to place security and military focus on Iran. Based on this scenario, Washington will most likely pull out its forces from various areas, such as Syria, and beef up its presence in the Persian Gulf.
At the next phase, they may be weighing military action against Iran. In such circumstances, this question comes to mind about how possible is this scenario?
Considering the fact that Iran is losing hope in the Europeans to provide the concessions they were looking for in remaining a part of the 2015 nuclear deal, Washington is now assessing a possible Iranian regime exit of the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran pulling out of the JCPOA has no other meaning than Tehran immediately relaunching its nuclear activities. This is where the Americans may seek to launch a preventive measure against Iran’s nuclear facilities, bearing the potential of paving the path for an unlimited war in the region.
Scenario Two:
The U.S. troop withdrawal from Syria may be part of a joint agreement with Russia and Turkey. Without a doubt, Washington will have received significant concessions in return, including possibly an agreement with Russian to push Iran out of Syria.
Scenario Three:
The Americans may have a plan to target Iranian forces in Syria, and this could include Israel targeting Hezbollah units in Lebanon. As a result, by pulling out its forces from Syria, the Americans may be seeking to prevent counter-attacks by Iran or Hezbollah against these forces.
At the end of the day, jumping to conclusions about U.S. President Donald Trump pulling out of Syria and leaving this important country at the hands of the Iranian regime would be immature, to say the least.
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